Wrongful Convictions in Sexual Assault Cases: Fiscal and Public Safety Costs Georgia Cannot Afford to Ignore

Executive Summary

• Up to 15% of people serving time for rape in Virginia were wrongfully convicted, according to the most rigorous post-conviction DNA study ever conducted (Urban Institute / NIJ). The baseline estimate is 11.6%. Applied to Georgia’s approximately 47,000 incarcerated people, the fiscal and human exposure is enormous.
• Sexual assault is the second most common crime type in exonerations, accounting for 26% of all 3,784 documented exonerations nationally — representing more than 35,264 years lost to wrongful imprisonment.
• Wrongful convictions directly harm public safety. While the state imprisoned innocent people, actual perpetrators committed 154 additional violent crimes, including 83 sexual assaults and 36 murders.
• Georgia’s post-conviction review system is broken — the state’s own Chief Justice, Nels Peterson, said so in March 2026, warning it leads to “lengthy case delays and wasted resources” that “unfairly extend a defendant’s imprisonment.”
• Black Georgians bear a disproportionate burden. A Black person serving time for sexual assault is 3.5 times more likely to be innocent than a white person convicted of the same crime.

Key Takeaway: Research-based wrongful conviction rates of 11.6%–15% in sexual assault cases represent a significant fiscal liability and public safety failure for Georgia.

Fiscal Impact

The Cost of Imprisoning Innocent People

Georgia incarcerates approximately 47,000 people in state prisons. While Georgia-specific wrongful conviction rates for sexual assault have not been studied, the national data presents a clear fiscal exposure:

• Incarceration costs: Every year an innocent person remains imprisoned, taxpayers bear the full cost of housing, medical care, supervision, and administration — with no corresponding public safety benefit.
• Compensation liability: Exonerees may pursue civil claims against the state. Nationally, 3,784 exonerations representing more than 35,264 years of wrongful imprisonment illustrate the scale of potential liability across jurisdictions.
• Wasted judicial resources: Chief Justice Nels Peterson called Georgia’s post-conviction review system “a mess” and “broken,” explicitly noting that the dysfunction leads to “wasted resources” and “lengthy case delays.”
• Public safety costs: Wrongful convictions leave actual perpetrators free. Innocence Project data shows those perpetrators committed 154 additional violent crimes — including 83 sexual assaults and 36 murders — generating new victims, new investigations, new prosecutions, and new incarceration costs.

The True Cost of Getting It Wrong

Every wrongful conviction generates compounding costs: the original prosecution, years of incarceration, post-conviction litigation, potential exoneration proceedings, compensation claims, and — critically — the cost of the additional violent crimes committed by the actual perpetrators who remained free. Georgia’s broken post-conviction review system multiplies these costs by delaying the identification and correction of errors.

Key Takeaway: Every wrongful conviction costs taxpayers in incarceration expenses, legal liability, and the downstream costs of violent crimes committed by actual perpetrators who remain free.

Key Findings

Wrongful Conviction Rates

The Urban Institute, funded by the National Institute of Justice, conducted the most rigorous study on wrongful conviction prevalence using post-conviction DNA testing of Virginia cases from the 1970s and 1980s:

• 11.6% of rape and rape-murder convictions were wrongful, based on forensic, case processing, and disposition data
• Up to 15% of men serving time for rape in Virginia had been wrongfully convicted

DNA Exoneration Evidence

The Innocence Project has participated in 254 DNA-based exonerations as of 2025:

• 91% of DNA exonerations (as of 2020) involved sexual assault cases — making sex crimes by far the most common wrongful conviction category identified through DNA testing
• 99% of wrongful convictions involved male defendants
• 70% of DNA exonerees were from minority groups (61% African American, 8% Latino)

The National Registry of Exonerations

As of 2024, the Registry has documented 3,784 exonerations representing more than 35,264 years lost to wrongful imprisonment since 1989:

• 26% of all exonerations are for sexual assault (11% child sex abuse, 15% adult sexual assault)
• Over 300 persons exonerated of adult sexual assault; over 250 exonerated of child sex abuse (as of end of 2018)

Contributing Factors to Wrongful Convictions

Adult Sexual Assault (National Registry, February 2019):
– Mistaken witness identification: 67%
– Perjury or false accusations: 42%
– Official misconduct: 38%

Child Sex Abuse (National Registry, February 2019):
– Perjury or false accusations: 84%
– Official misconduct: 44%

Across all crime types combined, false allegations and perjury constitute 59% of wrongful convictions — the most common contributing factor.

Unfounded Allegation Rates

A comprehensive analysis by the Center for Prosecutor Integrity found that approximately one-third of sexual assault allegations in the criminal justice setting are unfounded. Supporting data:

• FBI/Innocence Project data: Of roughly 10,000 sexual assault cases where DNA testing was conducted, approximately 2,000 (20%) excluded the suspect entirely, with the unfounded rate ranging from 20-40% depending on how inconclusive results are classified
• Military (DOD SAPRO, 2018): Of 2,854 reported cases, 28% were deemed “unfounded” or lacking “sufficient evidence of any offense to prosecute”
• Kanin Study: Of 109 rape allegations, police concluded 41% were false (cases classified as false only when complainant admitted the allegation was false)
• Southeastern State Study (2016): Of 351 allegations — 25% unfounded, 54% uncertain, only 21% cleared by arrest

Lower-range studies found rates of 5.9% (Lisak university study, 136 cases) and 4.5% (LAPD, 2008). A British police study found 8% initially classified as false, dropping to 2% under stricter Home Office criteria.

Racial Disparities

• A Black prisoner serving time for sexual assault is 3.5 times more likely to be innocent than a white sexual assault convict
• Cross-racial cases (Black men, white victims) comprise half of sexual assault exonerations involving eyewitness misidentification, despite being a small minority of all sexual assaults

The Real Perpetrator Problem

When Georgia and other states imprison innocent people, the actual perpetrators remain free. DNA evidence has identified real perpetrators who committed:
– 83 additional sexual assaults
– 36 murders
– 35 other violent crimes

This is a direct, measurable public safety failure.

Key Takeaway: Wrongful convictions in sexual assault cases are driven by mistaken eyewitness identification (67% of adult cases), false accusations (84% of child cases), and official misconduct (38-44%), with Black people bearing vastly disproportionate harm.

Comparable States

The source document’s primary comparable-state data comes from Virginia, where the Urban Institute conducted the landmark post-conviction DNA study:

• Virginia: Post-conviction DNA testing of 1970s–1980s cases revealed an 11.6% wrongful conviction rate in rape and rape-murder cases, with an upper estimate of 15%.

Additional jurisdiction-level data points from the source:

• A Southeastern State (unnamed, 2016): Of 351 sexual assault allegations, only 21% were cleared by arrest, with 25% deemed unfounded and 54% classified as uncertain.
• Denver, Colorado: The Denver Police Department’s internal assessment estimated false rape reports at approximately 45%.
• Los Angeles, California: The LAPD found a 4.5% rate of false reports in sexual assault cases in 2008.
• Military (DOD SAPRO, 2018): 28% of 2,854 reported sexual assault cases were deemed unfounded or lacking sufficient evidence.

Georgia-specific wrongful conviction rates for sex crimes have not been studied, which itself represents a gap. The Georgia Innocence Project, based at Georgia State University, works on wrongful conviction cases in the state but operates with limited resources.

Note: The source document does not include comprehensive state-by-state comparisons of post-conviction review systems or exoneration rates. The Virginia data remains the most directly applicable benchmark for estimating Georgia’s exposure.

Key Takeaway: Virginia’s landmark DNA study — the closest comparable data — found 11.6%–15% wrongful conviction rates in sexual assault cases; Georgia has never conducted a similar study of its own convictions.

Policy Recommendations

1. Fund a Georgia-Specific Wrongful Conviction Prevalence Study

Commission an independent, DNA-based study modeled on the Virginia/Urban Institute methodology to determine the actual rate of wrongful sexual assault convictions in Georgia. The General Assembly should appropriate funding through the Criminal Justice Coordinating Council or a university research partnership.

2. Reform Georgia’s Post-Conviction Review System

Chief Justice Nels Peterson has called the system “a mess” and “broken.” The legislature should:
– Establish statutory timelines for post-conviction review proceedings
– Create a dedicated post-conviction review unit within the judicial system
– Ensure access to post-conviction DNA testing for all people convicted of sexual offenses where biological evidence exists

3. Increase Funding for the Georgia Innocence Project

The Georgia Innocence Project operates with limited resources. Given that sexual assault represents 26% of all exonerations nationally, the state should provide dedicated funding to review sex crime convictions where evidence of innocence may exist.

4. Mandate Evidence-Based Eyewitness Identification Procedures

Mistaken eyewitness identification is the leading factor in 67% of adult sexual assault wrongful convictions. Georgia should require:
– Double-blind lineup administration
– Sequential presentation of lineup photographs
– Confidence statements at the time of identification
– Recording of all identification procedures

5. Address Racial Disparities in Sexual Assault Convictions

Black people convicted of sexual assault are 3.5 times more likely to be innocent. The legislature should:
– Require data collection and annual reporting on racial demographics in sexual assault prosecutions, convictions, and exonerations
– Mandate implicit bias training for law enforcement and prosecutors handling sexual assault cases
– Fund research into cross-racial eyewitness identification errors in Georgia cases

6. Establish a Conviction Integrity Unit

Create a statewide Conviction Integrity Unit within the Attorney General’s office or the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council, with a specific mandate to review sexual assault convictions flagged for potential innocence. This unit should have authority to recommend re-investigation and access preserved evidence.

7. Protect Due Process in Sexual Assault Investigations

While supporting victims, ensure that investigation methodologies maintain evidence-based standards. Require that sexual assault investigation protocols balance complainant support with rigorous evidence collection and preservation to protect against wrongful convictions.

Key Takeaway: Georgia should fund a state-specific wrongful conviction study, fix the broken post-conviction review system, mandate evidence-based eyewitness identification procedures, and address stark racial disparities in sexual assault convictions.

Read the Source Document

Read the full research compilation (PDF) — False Allegations and Wrongful Convictions in Sexual Assault Cases: A Research Compilation, Georgia Prisoners’ Speak Research Library, March 2026.

Other Versions

• Public Version — Plain-language summary for community members and families
• Media Version — Press-ready briefing with key statistics and context
• Advocate Version — Detailed analysis for attorneys, organizers, and policy advocates