Decarceration & Population Reduction
The Case for Decarceration in Georgia: An Evidence Base
This GPS policy brief presents the affirmative case for reducing Georgia's prison population by 20%, drawing on national evidence that decarceration does not increase crime and state-level case studies from New York, New Jersey, California, and others. It documents that the U.S. reduced its prison population 25% between 2009–2021 while crime continued to fall, that Georgia's elderly prisoners cost 9x more in medical care while posing minimal recidivism risk, and that Georgia's parole rate for lifers has collapsed from 70% (1993) to 4.5% (FY2024). The brief proposes a nine-point decarceration framework targeting a reduction from 50,000 to 40,000 prisoners within three years, projecting $300–350 million in annual savings.
Pre-written explainers based on this research
All Data Points
57 verified data points extracted from primary sources.
DOJ found Georgia prison conditions violate Eighth Amendment Legal fact
The DOJ found in October 2024 that conditions in Georgia's prison system violate the Eighth Amendment.
Georgia prison homicides surged from 8 (2018) to over 100 (2024) Statistic
Homicides in Georgia prisons surged from 8 in 2018 to over 100 in 2024.
100 homicides vs. homicides in 2018
Georgia spent $600+ million on prison system with deteriorating outcomes Finding
Georgia responded to its prison crisis with $600+ million in spending, yet every measurable outcome has continued to deteriorate.
U.S. prison population reduced 25% between 2009 and 2021 Statistic
The U.S. reduced its prison population by 25% between 2009 and 2021 — from over 1.6 million to under 1.2 million. During this period, crime continued to fall.
25%
Violent crime rates 53% lower than 1991 peak by 2024 Statistic
By 2024, violent crime rates were 53% lower than their 1991 peak, based on FBI data and Sentencing Project 2025 analysis.
53%
Property crime rates 66% lower than 1991 peak by 2024 Statistic
By 2024, property crime rates were 66% lower than their 1991 peak, based on FBI data and Sentencing Project 2025 analysis.
66%
COVID-19: Prison admissions fell 40% in 2020 Statistic
In 2020, prison admissions fell 40% and total population dropped 15% during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing a natural experiment in decarceration.
40%
COVID-19: Total prison population dropped 15% in 2020 Statistic
During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, total prison population dropped 15%.
15%
11,000 federal prisoners moved to home confinement with low recidivism Statistic
Approximately 11,000 federal prisoners moved to home confinement during COVID-19 with extremely low recidivism.
11,000 federal prisoners on home confinement
Brennan Center: Incarceration has negligible crime-reduction effect since 2000 Finding
The Brennan Center for Justice analyzed 40 years of data from 50 states and 50 largest cities, concluding increased incarceration had 0-10% effect on reducing crime in the 1990s, but since 2000 has had negligible effect.
Youth confinement fell 75% from 2000 to 2022 Statistic
Youth justice confinement fell from 108,800 (2000) to 27,600 (2022) — a 75% decline — with no correlation between confinement rates and violent youth crime.
75%
NYC: Serious crime fell 58% while incarceration fell 55% (1996-2014) Statistic
Between 1996 and 2014, NYC's serious crime rate fell 58% while its incarceration rate fell 55%.
58% vs. percent incarceration decline
New York State halved prison population while violent crime fell 28% (1999-2023) Statistic
At state level, New York halved its prison population between 1999-2023 while violent crime fell 28%. NY closed 12+ prisons, saved tens of millions.
50% vs. percent violent crime decline
New York closed 12+ prisons Case detail
New York closed 12+ prisons as part of its decarceration, saving tens of millions. Mechanisms included repealing Rockefeller drug laws, expanding alternatives, and reforming parole.
New Jersey holds 37% fewer people than 2019 — largest reduction of any state Statistic
New Jersey holds 37% fewer people than 2019 — the largest reduction of any state.
37%
New Jersey: Prison population dropped 26%, violent crime fell 30%, property crime fell 31% (1999-2012) Statistic
In New Jersey, 1999-2012: prison population dropped 26%, violent crime fell 30%, property crime fell 31% — exceeding national declines. Mechanisms: higher parole rates, reduced parole revocations, drug crime reforms.
26% vs. percent violent crime decline
California: Prison population dropped 23%, violent crime fell 21% (2006-2012) Statistic
In California, 2006-2012: prison population dropped 23%, violent crime fell 21%. PPIC found no evidence of increased violent crime.
23% vs. percent violent crime decline
Brown v. Plata: Supreme Court ordered California prison population reduction Legal fact
Brown v. Plata (2011) was a Supreme Court decision ordering California to reduce its prison population.
Five states achieved 14-25% prison reductions (23,646 fewer people) with no adverse safety effects Finding
Connecticut, Michigan, Mississippi, Rhode Island, South Carolina achieved 14-25% reductions (23,646 fewer people) with no adverse public safety effects. Key strategies: bipartisan leadership, evidence-based practices, community engagement, Justice R…
Louisiana reduced prison population 30% while crime fell 18% (2013-2022) Statistic
Louisiana reduced its prison population 30% between 2013-2022 while crime rate fell 18%. However, in 2024, Louisiana reversed course due to political backlash.
30% vs. percent crime rate decline
Five states reduced prison populations over 50% from peak Finding
Alaska, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Vermont reduced prison populations over 50% from peak levels. 21 states and the federal system reduced by over 25%.
21 states and federal system reduced prison populations by over 25% Statistic
21 states and the federal system reduced prison populations by over 25% from peak levels.
21 states
Recidivism rate for offenders under 21 at release: 67.6% Statistic
U.S. Sentencing Commission 2017 study of 25,431 federal offenders with 8-year follow-up found those under age 21 at release had a 67.6% rearrest rate.
67.6%
Recidivism rate for offenders age 60+: 13.4% Statistic
U.S. Sentencing Commission 2017 study found those age 60+ at release had a 13.4% rearrest rate, compared to 67.6% for those under 21.
13.4% vs. percent rearrested for under 21
Criminal History Category I, age 60+: 11.3% rearrest rate Statistic
Among federal offenders in Criminal History Category I who were age 60+ at release, only 11.3% were rearrested.
11.3%
3-year recidivism: aged 50-64 only 7%, over 65 only 4% Statistic
Nationwide 3-year recidivism rates: all released individuals 43.3%; aged 50-64 only 7%; over 65 only 4%.
4% vs. percent 3-year recidivism for all released
Less than 2% of people 55+ who served time for violent crimes return to prison Statistic
Less than 2% of people 55+ who served time for violent crimes return to prison for new crimes.
2%
NY State: Less than 1% of parolees over 65 returned for new conviction within 3 years Statistic
In New York State, less than 1% of parolees over 65 returned for new conviction within 3 years.
1%
Elderly prisoners cost 3-9x as much as younger prisoners nationally Statistic
Elderly prisoners cost 3-9x as much as younger prisoners. National estimates: $60,000-$70,000/year for elderly vs. $27,000 for younger.
$60,000 vs. dollars per year (younger)
Georgia: Medical costs for inmates over 65 are 9x younger inmates Statistic
Georgia-specific: $8,500/year medical costs for inmates over 65 vs. $950 for younger — a 9:1 ratio.
$8,500 vs. dollars per year medical costs (younger)
13% of Georgia prison population over 55 Statistic
13% of Georgia's prison population is over 55.
13%
Over 40% of approximately 10,000 Georgia lifers aged 50+ Statistic
Over 40% of approximately 10,000 lifers in Georgia are aged 50+.
40%
Georgia parole rate collapsed from 70% (1993) to 4.5% for lifers (FY2024) Trend
Parole collapsed from 70% (1993) to 4.5% for lifers (FY2024).
Average time served for Georgia lifers increased from 12.5 to 31 years Trend
Average time served for lifers in Georgia increased from 12.5 years to 31 years.
Georgia: Each additional year of incarceration costs $31,612 at $86.61/day Statistic
Each additional year of incarceration in Georgia costs $31,612 at $86.61/day.
$31,612
Cost of extending lifer sentences from 12.5 to 31 years: $585,000 per person Statistic
The shift from 12.5 to 31 years for lifers represents $585,000 per person in additional incarceration costs.
$585,000
Georgia Parole Board considered 2,046 life sentence cases in FY2024, granted 93 (4.5%) Statistic
Georgia Parole Board considered 2,046 life sentence cases in FY2024, granted 93 — a 4.5% rate.
93 paroles granted for life sentences vs. life sentence cases considered
Presumptive parole for elderly 55+ could release 2,000-3,000 people Policy
Proposed presumptive parole for elderly prisoners (55+) with automatic review and presumption of release could release 2,000-3,000 from the elderly/lifer population.
Estimated savings from elderly presumptive parole: $120-140 million/year Statistic
Releasing 2,000-3,000 elderly prisoners through presumptive parole would save $120-140 million/year at $60,000-$70,000/person.
$130M
DOJ found medium-security facilities housing close-security populations at 10x normal rates Finding
DOJ found medium-security facilities housing close-security populations at 10x normal rates, indicating need for systematic reclassification.
Over 40% of Georgia prisoners serving for non-violent offenses Statistic
Over 40% of Georgia's prison population is serving for non-violent offenses.
40%
Georgia Parole Board can release any prisoner over 62, including LWOP Legal fact
Georgia has legal authority — the Parole Board can release any prisoner over 62, including those serving life without parole.
Georgia has longest probation sentences nationally Finding
Georgia has the longest probation sentences nationally. Technical violations drive the admissions pipeline.
Releasing 10,000 prisoners (20% reduction) would save $316 million annually Statistic
Releasing 10,000 prisoners (a 20% reduction) at $31,612/year average would yield $316 million in annual savings.
$316M
If skewed elderly: 5,000 releases at $60,000-$70,000 = $300-350 million savings Statistic
If releases are skewed toward elderly prisoners: 5,000 at $60,000-$70,000 each = $300-350 million in annual savings.
$325M
Community supervision costs $3,000-$5,000/year vs. incarceration Statistic
Community supervision costs $3,000-$5,000/year — a fraction of incarceration costs.
$4,000 vs. dollars per year incarceration
Population target: 20% reduction (50,000 to 40,000) within 3 years Policy
GPS proposes a 20% population reduction target (from 50,000 to 40,000) within 3 years, which would improve the CO-to-prisoner ratio from 1:14 to 1:11.
CO-to-prisoner ratio would improve from 1:14 to 1:11 with 20% reduction Statistic
A 20% population reduction would improve the correctional officer-to-prisoner ratio from 1:14 to 1:11.
11 prisoners per CO (projected) vs. prisoners per CO (current)
GDC 82.7% first-year correctional officer turnover rate Statistic
GDC has an 82.7% first-year correctional officer turnover rate, making it impossible to achieve adequate staffing at current population levels.
82.7%
GDC 14.75% hire rate Statistic
GDC has only a 14.75% hire rate, meaning fewer than 1 in 6 applicants are successfully hired.
14.8%
People convicted of violent offenses are among least likely to be rearrested Finding
People convicted of violent offenses are among the LEAST likely to be rearrested, according to BJS data. Age is the key variable in recidivism.
Deal-era reforms proved politically viable under conservative Republican governor Finding
Deal-era criminal justice reforms proved politically viable under a conservative Republican governor, demonstrating that decarceration can be bipartisan.
Most crime victims prefer prevention over incarceration Finding
Most crime victims prefer prevention over incarceration, according to Alliance for Safety and Justice.
USSC study sample: 25,431 federal offenders with 8-year follow-up Methodology note
The U.S. Sentencing Commission 2017 study examined 25,431 federal offenders over an 8-year follow-up period. The age-crime pattern was consistent across all offense types.
GPS proposes SB 25 with presumptive release language Policy
GPS proposes passing SB 25 with presumptive release language to expand parole review and restore rates toward historical norms. Even a 15-20% parole rate for lifers (vs. current 4.5%) would release thousands.
GPS proposes independent GDC Inspector General Policy
GPS proposes establishing an independent GDC Inspector General as part of the Georgia Decarceration Framework.
GPS proposes second-look sentencing with 15-year judicial review Policy
GPS proposes second-look sentencing with judicial review after 15 years with retroactive application, per Model Penal Code recommendation.
Sources
10 cited sources backing this research.
Secondary
Official report
Alliance for Safety and Justice
Secondary
Official report
Primary
Academic
Primary
Academic
Brennan Center for Justice analysis
Secondary
Official report
Primary
Official report
Primary
Official report
Primary
Gps original
Primary
Official report
Primary
Gps original
The Case for Decarceration in Georgia: An Evidence Base, GPS
Key Entities
Organizations, people, facilities, and other named entities referenced in this research.
Alliance for Safety and Justice
[organization]
American Bar Association
[organization]
Brennan Center for Justice
[organization]
Brown v. Plata
[case]
Bureau of Justice Statistics
[organization]
Federal Bureau of Investigation
[organization]
Georgia Department of Corrections
[organization]
Georgia Prisoners' Speak
[organization]
Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles
[organization]
Harvard Kennedy School
[organization]
Justice Reinvestment Initiative
[program]
Nathan Deal
[person]
Prison Policy Initiative
[organization]
Public Policy Institute of California
[organization]
SB 25
[legislation]
Sentencing Project
[organization]
U.S. Department of Justice
[organization]
U.S. Sentencing Commission
[organization]
Vera Institute of Justice
[organization]