GPS RESEARCH LIBRARY: Truth in Sentencing & Fiscal Impact: The $40 Billion Story ============================================================ Georgia Prisoners' Speak — gps.press Generated: 2026-03-07 04:00:19 EST JSON: https://gps.press/research/truth-in-sentencing-fiscal-impact-the-40-billion-story/?format=json SUMMARY ---------------------------------------- Georgia's embrace of truth-in-sentencing policies in the 1990s exemplifies a catastrophic fiscal miscalculation at the state level: the federal government offered $82.2 million in Violent Offender Incarceration and Truth-in-Sentencing grants between 1996 and 2001, incentivizing states to adopt laws requiring violent offenders to serve 85% of their sentences, while Georgia ultimately incurred approximately $40–50 billion in criminal justice system costs over three decades. This $82 million federal investment—representing just 0.2–0.3% of Georgia's subsequent total system expenditures—locked the state into fiscal obligations roughly 400–600 times larger than the federal incentive payment itself. The Urban Institute identified that federal grants had "limited influence" on state TIS adoption; Georgia, like most recipient states, enacted truth-in-sentencing legislation before the largest federal payments arrived. Nevertheless, by 2001, Georgia ranked ninth nationally among VOI/TIS recipients and used the $82.2 million grant to create 4,132 new prison beds across the Department of Corrections and Department of Juvenile Justice. These facilities, combined with Georgia's 1995 Seven Deadly Sins law requiring life without parole for second violent felony convictions and parole abolition for all offenses committed after 1996, transformed Georgia's carceral footprint. Conservative estimates place direct Georgia corrections spending at $30.6 billion from 1995–2025, while total system costs—including county jail operations exceeding $500 million annually, probation and parole supervision at $150–170 million annually, and court system costs of $200–300 million annually—approach $40–50 billion over the same 30-year period. Yet Georgia's prison expansion produced minimal public safety benefit. Research demonstrates that 75–100% of crime reduction since the 1990s resulted from factors other than incarceration, including aging populations, increased employment, and rising graduation rates. Crucially, incarceration has no demonstrated effect on violent crime—the specific offense category driving TIS policies. When 19 states reduced both incarceration and crime rates between 2000 and 2015, New Jersey achieved a 37% incarceration reduction alongside a 30% crime decrease, while West Virginia's 83% incarceration increase corresponded with only 4% crime growth. Meanwhile, rigorous studies by Michael Mueller-Smith and comprehensive meta-analyses show that imprisonment generates net increases in recidivism frequency and severity, worsens post-release employment outcomes, and reduces future earnings by 3.6 percentage points per year served. GPS analysis estimates Georgia's TIS policies generate approximately 1,500 additional recidivists annually, creating an estimated $2.7 billion recidivism premium over 20 years. Alternative evidence-based investments reveal the magnitude of Georgia's opportunity cost. Correctional education programs deliver $4–5 in savings per dollar invested with 43% recidivism reductions, while states implementing justice reinvestment reforms—Texas investing $241 million in graduated sanctions and evidence-based programs, Louisiana passing 10 reform laws in 2017—achieved 46% parole revocation rate drops and 9% prison population reductions without sacrificing public safety. The research demands immediate investigation into whether Georgia's truth-in-sentencing architecture remains justified by contemporary criminological evidence or represents a fiscal and moral liability requiring fundamental restructuring. POLICYS (6) ---------------------------------------- - [confirmed] VOI/TIS Grant Program Authorization The Violent Offender Incarceration and Truth-in-Sentencing (VOI/TIS) Incentive Grant Program authorized $12.5 billion nationally, with nearly 50% earmarked for states adopting TIS laws requiring violent offenders to serve at least 85% of their sentences. Date: 1994-01-01 Tags: VOI/TIS, federal grants, truth in sentencing, Violent Crime Control Act, sentencing policy Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report; GAO Truth in Sentencing State Grants Report 1998 - [confirmed] Oregon Measure 11 Mandatory Minimums Oregon's Measure 11 (1994) imposed mandatory minimums of 70–300 months for 16 designated crimes, later expanded to 21 crimes. Date: 1994-01-01 Tags: Oregon, Measure 11, mandatory minimums, truth in sentencing Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences - [confirmed] Georgia Seven Deadly Sins Law Georgia's Seven Deadly Sins law (1995) required life without parole for second conviction of seven serious violent felonies. Date: 1995-01-01 Tags: Georgia, Seven Deadly Sins, life without parole, sentencing policy, truth in sentencing Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences - [confirmed] Georgia Parole Abolition Georgia abolished parole for all offenses committed after 1996. Date: 1996-01-01 Tags: Georgia, parole abolition, truth in sentencing, sentencing policy Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences - [confirmed] New Jersey TIS: 85% Requirement for Violent Offenses New Jersey's TIS law required 85% of sentence served for violent offenses. Tags: New Jersey, truth in sentencing, violent offenses, 85 percent Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences - [confirmed] Pell Grant Ban Duration for Prisoners There was a 21-year ban on Pell Grant eligibility for incarcerated students before the Second Chance Pell Experimental Sites Initiative restored it in 2015. Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: Pell Grant, correctional education, policy, ban Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? STATISTICS (65) ---------------------------------------- - [confirmed] Number of Jurisdictions Receiving VOI/TIS Grants by 2001 By 2001, 29 jurisdictions had received a combined $2.7 billion through the VOI/TIS program. Value: 29 jurisdictions Date: 2001-01-01 Tags: VOI/TIS, federal grants, truth in sentencing, state adoption Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Total VOI/TIS Grants Disbursed by 2001 By 2001, a combined $2.7 billion had been disbursed through the VOI/TIS program to 29 jurisdictions. Value: 2.7 billion dollars Date: 2001-01-01 Tags: VOI/TIS, federal grants, truth in sentencing Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Georgia Total Federal VOI/TIS Grant Awards Georgia received a total of $82,211,036 in federal VOI/TIS grants between FY 1996 and FY 2001, ranking 9th nationally among recipient states. Value: 82211036 dollars Date: 2001-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants, truth in sentencing Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Beds Created with Georgia VOI/TIS Funds Georgia's VOI/TIS federal grant funds were used to create 4,132 beds across the Department of Corrections and Department of Juvenile Justice. Value: 4132 beds Date: 2001-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, prison capacity, beds, Department of Corrections, Department of Juvenile Justice Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Georgia FY 1996 VOI/TIS Grant Georgia received $14,073,653 in VOI/TIS grants in FY 1996. Value: 14073653 dollars Date: 1996-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Georgia FY 1997 VOI/TIS Grant Georgia received $23,923,177 in VOI/TIS grants in FY 1997, its largest single-year award. Value: 23923177 dollars Date: 1997-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Georgia FY 1998 VOI/TIS Grant Georgia received $16,249,000 in VOI/TIS grants in FY 1998. Value: 16249000 dollars Date: 1998-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Georgia FY 1999 VOI/TIS Grant Georgia received $14,073,653 in VOI/TIS grants in FY 1999. Value: 14073653 dollars Date: 1999-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Georgia FY 2000 VOI/TIS Grant Georgia received $6,745,553 in VOI/TIS grants in FY 2000. Value: 6745553 dollars Date: 2000-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Georgia FY 2001 VOI/TIS Grant Georgia received $7,146,000 in VOI/TIS grants in FY 2001. Value: 7146000 dollars Date: 2001-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [estimated] Georgia Conservative Direct Corrections Spending 1995-2025 Conservative direct corrections spending in Georgia from 1995–2025 was estimated at $30.6 billion. Value: 30.6 billion dollars Date: 2025-01-01 Tags: Georgia, corrections spending, fiscal impact, truth in sentencing Sources: GPS analysis of Georgia state budget documents - [estimated] Georgia Total System Cost 1995-2025 When including county jail operations ($500M+ annually), probation and parole supervision ($150–170M annually), court system costs ($200–300M annually), and capital construction, Georgia's total criminal justice system cost approaches $40–50 billion over 30 years (1995–2025). Value: 40-50 billion dollars over 30 years Date: 2025-01-01 Tags: Georgia, total system cost, corrections spending, fiscal impact, county jails, courts Sources: GPS analysis of Georgia state budget documents - [estimated] Georgia County Jail Operations Annual Cost Georgia county jail operations cost over $500 million annually. Value: 500 million dollars annually Tags: Georgia, county jails, spending Sources: GPS analysis of Georgia state budget documents - [estimated] Georgia Probation and Parole Supervision Annual Cost Georgia probation and parole supervision costs $150–170 million annually. Value: 150-170 million dollars annually Tags: Georgia, probation, parole, supervision costs Sources: GPS analysis of Georgia state budget documents - [estimated] Georgia Court System Annual Cost Georgia court system costs $200–300 million annually. Value: 200-300 million dollars annually Tags: Georgia, court system, spending Sources: GPS analysis of Georgia state budget documents - [estimated] Federal Grants as Percentage of Subsequent Costs The $82 million in federal VOI/TIS grants equals just 0.2–0.3% of Georgia's subsequent total system costs. Georgia accepted a fiscal obligation roughly 400–600 times larger than the federal incentive payment. Value: 0.2-0.3 percent (vs. 400-600 ratio of obligation to incentive) Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants, fiscal impact, cost ratio Sources: GPS analysis of Georgia state budget documents - [confirmed] National Corrections Spending Growth 1980s to 2000s State corrections spending increased from $11 billion to $50 billion annually between the 1980s and 2000s without commensurate public safety gains. Value: 50 billion dollars annually (vs. 11 billion dollars annually in the 1980s) Date: 2000-01-01 Tags: national, corrections spending, growth, public safety Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] National Corrections Spending in 2015 By 2015, total corrections spending reached $87 billion nationally. Value: 87 billion dollars Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: national, corrections spending Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] National Prison Health Care Spending in 2011 Prison health care alone consumed nearly $8 billion in 2011. Value: 8 billion dollars Date: 2011-01-01 Tags: prison healthcare, spending, national Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] Prison Health Care Spending Median Growth Rate 2007-2011 Prison health care had a median 13% growth rate between FY 2007 and FY 2011. Value: 13 percent growth rate (median) Date: 2011-01-01 Tags: prison healthcare, spending growth, national Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] Per-Inmate Health Care Spending Growth Per-inmate health care spending rose in 39 states, with a median 10% growth rate between FY 2007 and FY 2011. Value: 10 percent growth rate (median per-inmate) (vs. 39 states with rising per-inmate costs) Date: 2011-01-01 Tags: prison healthcare, per-inmate costs, spending growth Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] U.S. Incarceration Spending vs. Equivalent Public Safety (2000 vs 1975) The Vera Institute found that the United States spent roughly $33 billion on incarceration in 2000 for roughly the same level of public safety it achieved in 1975 for $7.4 billion. Value: 33 billion dollars (2000) (vs. 7.4 billion dollars for equivalent safety in 1975) Date: 2000-01-01 Tags: national, incarceration spending, public safety, cost effectiveness, Vera Institute Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] U.S. Corrections Spending vs. Equivalent Public Safety (2015 vs 1978) By 2015, corrections spending reached $87 billion for the same public safety level achieved in 1978 for $5.5 billion. Value: 87 billion dollars (2015) (vs. 5.5 billion dollars for equivalent safety in 1978) Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: national, corrections spending, public safety, cost effectiveness Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] Federal Prison Overcrowding 2012 By 2012, the federal prison system was 35–40% above rated capacity, with high-security facilities at 51% overcapacity. Value: 35-40 percent above rated capacity (vs. 51 percent overcapacity for high-security facilities) Date: 2012-01-01 Tags: federal prison, overcrowding, capacity Sources: Stemming the Tide: Strategies to Reduce Growth and Cut Cost of Federal Prison System - [estimated] Federal Prison Overcrowding Projection Urban Institute projections indicated that if growth continued unabated, the federal system would incarcerate 50,000+ inmates over capacity per year through 2020, potentially reaching 50%+ overcapacity. Value: 50000 inmates over capacity per year Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: federal prison, overcrowding, projections, Urban Institute Sources: Stemming the Tide: Strategies to Reduce Growth and Cut Cost of Federal Prison System - [confirmed] National Increase in Time Served 1990–2009 Pew documented a 36% increase in time served nationally from 1990 to 2009, based on National Corrections Reporting Program data from 35 states representing 89% of 2009 releases. Value: 36 percent increase Date: 2009-01-01 Tags: time served, national, sentencing, Pew, NCRP Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] Average Time Served Increase 1990-1998 Average time served increased from 38 months (1990) to 43 months (1998) nationally. Value: 43 months (vs. 38 months in 1990) Date: 1998-01-01 Tags: time served, national, sentencing trends Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] Violent Offenders Expected Length of Stay 2009 Violent offenders entering or remaining in prison in 2009 could expect to spend about 7.1 years in custody—more than 2 years longer than the average for violent criminals released that year. Value: 7.1 years expected (vs. 2 years longer than average served by 2009 releases) Date: 2009-01-01 Tags: violent offenders, time served, expected length of stay Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] Louisiana Expected vs. Actual Time Served In Louisiana, expected length of stay was 9.1 years vs. 5.3 years actually served by 2009 releases. Value: 9.1 years expected (vs. 5.3 years actually served by 2009 releases) Date: 2009-01-01 Tags: Louisiana, time served, expected length of stay Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] Pennsylvania Expected vs. Actual Time Served In Pennsylvania, expected length of stay was 11.1 years vs. 5.9 years served by 2009 releases. Value: 11.1 years expected (vs. 5.9 years actually served by 2009 releases) Date: 2009-01-01 Tags: Pennsylvania, time served, expected length of stay Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] Release Rate Decline Despite Absolute Increases Between 1990 and 1998, the release rate (number released per 100 prisoners) declined even as absolute releases increased from 405,374 to 520,172. Value: 520172 releases (1998) (vs. 405374 releases in 1990) Date: 1998-01-01 Tags: release rate, prison releases, incarceration growth Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] 19 States Reduced Both Incarceration and Crime 2000-2015 19 states reduced BOTH incarceration AND crime rates between 2000 and 2015. Value: 19 states Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: state reform, incarceration reduction, crime reduction, Vera Institute Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] New Jersey: Largest Incarceration Drop with Crime Decline New Jersey achieved the largest incarceration drop (37% decrease) alongside a 30% decrease in crime between 2000 and 2015. Value: 37 percent decrease in incarceration (vs. 30 percent decrease in crime) Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: New Jersey, incarceration reduction, crime reduction, reform success Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] West Virginia: Largest Incarceration Increase with Crime Increase West Virginia had the largest incarceration increase (83%) and experienced a 4% increase in crime between 2000 and 2015. Value: 83 percent increase in incarceration (vs. 4 percent increase in crime) Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: West Virginia, incarceration increase, crime increase Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [disputed] Kuziemko: Georgia Parole Study Finding Ilyana Kuziemko studied Georgia inmates using a discontinuity in parole board guidelines and found that each additional month served lowers the 3-year recidivism rate by 1.5%. Value: 1.5 percentage point reduction in 3-year recidivism per additional month served Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: Georgia, parole, recidivism, Kuziemko, sentence length Sources: How Should Inmates Be Released from Prison? An Assessment of Parole Versus Fixed-Sentence Regimes - [confirmed] Employment Reduction Per Year of Incarceration Each additional year behind bars reduces post-release employment by 3.6 percentage points. Value: 3.6 percentage points reduction Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: employment, incarceration effects, Mueller-Smith, labor market Sources: The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration - [confirmed] Employment Drop for Long-Term Incarceration of Stable Earners Among felony defendants with stable pre-charge earnings incarcerated 1+ years, post-release employment drops by at least 24 percentage points. Value: 24 percentage points minimum reduction Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: employment, incarceration effects, Mueller-Smith, labor market, stable earners Sources: The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration - [confirmed] Norway: Imprisonment Decreases Reoffending by 29 Percentage Points Using random assignment of cases to judges with different sentencing stringency in Norway, Bhuller et al. found that imprisonment decreases the probability of reoffending within 5 years by 29 percentage points and reduces the number of offenses by 11 criminal charges. Value: 29 percentage points reduction in reoffending probability (vs. 11 criminal charges reduction) Date: 2020-01-01 Tags: Norway, recidivism, incarceration effects, Bhuller, natural experiment, IV estimate Sources: Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment - [confirmed] Norway vs. U.S. Average Prison Time Average prison time in Norway is 184 days (6 months), with 90% of spells under 1 year, compared to 2.9 years in the U.S. Value: 184 days (Norway average) (vs. 2.9 years (U.S. average)) Date: 2020-01-01 Tags: Norway, United States, prison time, international comparison, sentence length Sources: Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment - [estimated] Georgia Annual Inmate Releases Georgia releases approximately 15,000 inmates annually. Value: 15000 inmates released annually Tags: Georgia, releases, prison population Sources: GPS analysis applying academic findings to Georgia corrections data - [estimated] Estimated Georgia Recidivism Premium: 1,500 Additional Recidivists Per Year If Georgia's TIS policies increased recidivism by even 10 percentage points (consistent with Mueller-Smith's findings), this would equal 1,500 additional recidivists per year out of approximately 15,000 annual releases. Value: 1500 additional recidivists per year (vs. 10 percentage point increase in recidivism) Tags: Georgia, recidivism premium, TIS, fiscal impact Sources: GPS analysis applying academic findings to Georgia corrections data - [estimated] Estimated Georgia Recidivism Premium: Annual Cost At an average 3-year return stint and $30,000 per inmate-year, the 1,500 additional recidivists per year create 4,500 extra prison-years annually costing approximately $135 million annually. Value: 135 million dollars annually Tags: Georgia, recidivism premium, TIS, fiscal impact, cost per inmate Sources: GPS analysis applying academic findings to Georgia corrections data - [estimated] Estimated Georgia Recidivism Premium: 20-Year Total Over 20 years, Georgia's estimated recidivism premium from TIS policies totals approximately $2.7 billion. Value: 2.7 billion dollars over 20 years Tags: Georgia, recidivism premium, TIS, fiscal impact, 20-year projection Sources: GPS analysis applying academic findings to Georgia corrections data - [estimated] Georgia Cost Per Inmate-Year Estimate GPS analysis uses $30,000 per inmate-year as the average cost for Georgia corrections. Value: 30000 dollars per inmate-year Tags: Georgia, cost per inmate, corrections spending Sources: GPS analysis applying academic findings to Georgia corrections data - [confirmed] RAND: 43% Reduction in Recidivism from Correctional Education RAND's meta-analysis covering correctional education programs from 1980 to 2013 found a 43% reduction in recidivism odds for correctional education participants. Value: 43 percent reduction in recidivism odds Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: RAND, correctional education, recidivism, evidence-based, what works Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? - [confirmed] RAND: Prison Education ROI $4-5 Per Dollar RAND's meta-analysis found $4–5 savings per dollar invested in prison education. Value: 4-5 dollars saved per dollar invested Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: RAND, correctional education, ROI, cost savings, evidence-based Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? - [confirmed] RAND: 13% Higher Employment for Education Participants Correctional education participants had 13% higher employment rates than non-participants. Value: 13 percent higher employment Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: RAND, correctional education, employment, evidence-based Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? - [confirmed] Correctional Education Program Costs Direct correctional education program costs range from $1,400–$1,744 per inmate. Value: 1400-1744 dollars per inmate Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: RAND, correctional education, program costs Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? - [confirmed] Correctional Education Savings from Reduced Reincarceration Savings from reduced reincarceration due to correctional education range from $8,700–$9,700 per participant over 3 years. Value: 8700-9700 dollars saved per participant over 3 years Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: RAND, correctional education, cost savings, reincarceration Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? - [confirmed] Second Chance Pell: 40,000+ Students, 12,000 Credentials The Second Chance Pell Experimental Sites Initiative (launched 2015) restored Pell Grant eligibility after a 21-year ban, with 40,000+ students participating by 2022, earning nearly 12,000 credentials. Value: 40000 students (by 2022) (vs. 12000 credentials earned) Date: 2022-01-01 Tags: Second Chance Pell, correctional education, Pell Grant, credentials Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? - [confirmed] Texas: $241M+ Investment in Evidence-Based Programs Texas invested $241M+ in evidence-based programs and swift/graduated sanctions as part of Justice Reinvestment Initiative. Value: 241 million dollars+ Tags: Texas, justice reinvestment, evidence-based, reform Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] Texas: 46% Drop in Parole Revocation Rate Texas's parole revocation rate dropped 46% following justice reinvestment reforms. Value: 46 percent decrease Tags: Texas, parole revocation, justice reinvestment, reform Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] Texas: Avoided $3 Billion+ in Prison Costs Texas avoided $3 billion+ in projected prison construction and operating costs through justice reinvestment reforms. Value: 3 billion dollars+ avoided Tags: Texas, cost avoidance, justice reinvestment, prison construction Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] Louisiana: 10 Reform Laws Passed in 2017 Louisiana passed 10 reform laws in 2017 as part of justice reinvestment. Value: 10 reform laws Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: Louisiana, reform, justice reinvestment, legislation Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] Louisiana: 9% Prison Population Reduction by End of 2018 Louisiana achieved a 9% prison population reduction by end of 2018 following justice reinvestment reforms. Value: 9 percent reduction Date: 2018-12-31 Tags: Louisiana, prison population, reduction, justice reinvestment Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] Louisiana: 12% Reduction in Probation/Parole Population Louisiana achieved a 12% reduction in probation/parole population following 2017 reforms. Value: 12 percent reduction Date: 2018-12-31 Tags: Louisiana, probation, parole, population reduction Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] Louisiana: $30 Million Shifted to Community Services Louisiana shifted $30 million to community-based services as part of justice reinvestment reforms. Value: 30 million dollars Tags: Louisiana, community services, justice reinvestment, reinvestment Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] Oklahoma: 58% Voter Approval for Drug Reclassification in 2016 In Oklahoma in 2016, 58% of voters approved converting drug possession from felony to misdemeanor. Value: 58 percent voter approval Date: 2016-01-01 Tags: Oklahoma, drug policy, voter initiative, sentencing reform Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] Justice Reinvestment Initiative: 30+ States Participating The Pew-supported Justice Reinvestment Initiative worked with 30+ states to implement data-driven reform. Value: 30 states (30+) Tags: justice reinvestment, Pew, state reform, data-driven Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] Drug Offenders: 19% of State Prison Population Growth 1990-1998 Drug offenders accounted for 19% of state prison population growth from 1990–1998. Value: 19 percent of prison population growth Date: 1998-01-01 Tags: drug offenses, prison population, Sentencing Project Sources: Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s - [confirmed] Drug Admissions Growth: 19,600 to 107,000 (1984-1998) Annual drug admissions to state prisons grew from 19,600 (1984) to 107,000 (1998). Value: 107000 annual drug admissions (1998) (vs. 19600 annual drug admissions in 1984) Date: 1998-01-01 Tags: drug offenses, prison admissions, growth, Sentencing Project Sources: Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s - [confirmed] Drug Arrests Growth: 1,010,000 to 1,559,100 (1991-1998) Drug arrests rose from 1,010,000 (1991) to 1,559,100 (1998). Value: 1559100 drug arrests (1998) (vs. 1010000 drug arrests in 1991) Date: 1998-01-01 Tags: drug arrests, war on drugs, Sentencing Project Sources: Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s - [reported] GPS: $47M Annual Commissary Extraction Enabled by TIS Longer sentences from TIS mean more years of family commissary spending, phone charges, and visit costs. GPS has documented $47M annual commissary extraction, directly enabled by TIS-mandated longer sentences. Value: 47 million dollars annually Tags: Georgia, commissary, family costs, TIS, GPS investigation Sources: GPS analysis applying academic findings to Georgia corrections data - [confirmed] Projected Average Time Before First Release 1990 vs 1998 Between 1990–1998, projected average time before first release increased from 38 to 43 months. Value: 43 months (1998) (vs. 38 months (1990)) Date: 1998-01-01 Tags: time served, projected release, sentencing trends, Sentencing Project Sources: Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s - [confirmed] 90% of Norway Prison Spells Under 1 Year In Norway, 90% of prison spells are under 1 year. Value: 90 percent of spells under 1 year Date: 2020-01-01 Tags: Norway, sentence length, international comparison Sources: Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment FINDINGS (33) ---------------------------------------- - [confirmed] Georgia VOI/TIS National Ranking Georgia ranked 9th nationally among recipient states for VOI/TIS grant funding. Date: 2001-01-01 Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants, national ranking Sources: Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report - [confirmed] Urban Institute Finding: Limited Federal Influence on TIS Adoption The Urban Institute (Sabol et al. 2002) found that federal VOI/TIS grants had 'limited influence' on state adoption of TIS laws. Most states, including Georgia, enacted TIS legislation before the largest federal payments arrived. Date: 2002-01-01 Tags: Urban Institute, VOI/TIS, policy adoption, federal grants, Georgia Sources: Influence of Truth-in-Sentencing Reforms on Changes in States' Sentencing Practices and Prison Populations - [confirmed] Urban Institute Warning on TIS Impact if Crime Rises The Urban Institute concluded that effects on prison population would have been 'much greater had violent crime rates not fallen substantially after 1991' and warned that 'were sentencing practices of 1996 to persist during time when violent offenses increase, impacts on prison populations and corrections management could be dramatic.' Date: 2002-01-01 Tags: Urban Institute, truth in sentencing, prison population, crime rates, projections Sources: Influence of Truth-in-Sentencing Reforms on Changes in States' Sentencing Practices and Prison Populations - [confirmed] Early Parole Abolition States Had Lower Prison Growth Early parole-abolition states like Minnesota and Washington, which abolished parole for transparency and reducing sentencing disparities rather than increasing sentence length, generally had lower rates of prison population increase than parole-retention states. Date: 2006-01-01 Tags: parole abolition, prison population, Minnesota, Washington, sentencing reform Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences; Determinate Sentencing and Abolishing Parole: The Long-term Impacts on Prisons and Crime - [confirmed] Marvell & Moody: Parole Abolition and Prison Growth Using 1971–1993 data, only 1 of 10 parole-abolition states experienced a higher rate of prison population increase than the 50-state average. The lowest growth rates were found in Minnesota and Washington. Date: 1996-01-01 Tags: parole abolition, prison population growth, Minnesota, Washington, determinant sentencing Sources: Determinate Sentencing and Abolishing Parole: The Long-term Impacts on Prisons and Crime - [confirmed] Pew Public Opinion Polling on Sentencing Reform January 2012 polling of 1,200 likely voters plus Georgia, Missouri, and Oregon surveys found broad support for policy changes shortening time served and reinvesting prison savings in stronger probation and parole supervision. Date: 2012-01-01 Tags: public opinion, sentencing reform, Pew, Georgia, Missouri, Oregon Sources: Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms - [confirmed] Vera Institute: Incarceration Crime Reduction Effect Minimal Don Stemen's evidence brief for the Vera Institute found that incarceration's crime reduction effect is minimal at best and has been diminishing for years. Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: Vera Institute, incarceration effectiveness, crime reduction, diminishing returns Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] Incarceration's Near-Zero Crime Reduction Since 2000 Since 2000, increased incarceration accounted for nearly zero percent of the overall reduction in crime. Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: incarceration effectiveness, crime reduction, Vera Institute Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] Crime Decline Explained by Non-Incarceration Factors Between 75–100% of the crime decline since the 1990s is explained by factors OTHER than incarceration, including aging population, increased wages, increased employment, increased graduation rates, consumer confidence, law enforcement personnel changes, and policing strategy changes. Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: crime decline, incarceration effectiveness, alternative explanations, Vera Institute Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] No Demonstrated Effect of Incarceration on Violent Crime Increased incarceration has no demonstrated effect on violent crime. Crime reduction benefits from incarceration apply only to property crimes. Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: incarceration effectiveness, violent crime, property crime, Vera Institute Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [reported] Incarceration May Increase Crime In some instances, incarceration may increase crime, according to the Vera Institute synthesis of research. Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: incarceration effectiveness, criminogenic effects, Vera Institute Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] All 4 States with Crime Increases Also Had Incarceration Increases Only 4 states experienced crime increases between 2000 and 2015—all 4 also had incarceration increases. Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: incarceration increase, crime increase, state comparison Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] Criminogenic Effects of Prison Criminogenic effects of prison include: breaking down social and family bonds, removing adults who would otherwise nurture children, depriving communities of income, reducing future income potential, and engendering deep resentment toward the legal system. Research suggests even short jail terms can increase an individual's likelihood of engaging in future criminal behavior. Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: criminogenic effects, prison, recidivism, family impact, community impact Sources: The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer - [confirmed] Roodman Reanalysis: Parole Bias in Kuziemko Study David Roodman's 2017 reanalysis of Kuziemko's Georgia data identified potential 'parole bias'—inmates released earlier spend more time on parole supervision, which may elevate measured recidivism through technical violations rather than new criminal behavior. Roodman found an insignificant impact of length of stay on recidivism. Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: Georgia, parole bias, recidivism, Roodman, methodology, Kuziemko reanalysis Sources: The Impacts of Incarceration on Crime - [confirmed] Mueller-Smith: Imprisonment Increases Recidivism Michael Mueller-Smith's study found that imprisonment generates net increases in the frequency and severity of recidivism, worsens labor market outcomes, and strengthens dependence on public assistance. Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: Mueller-Smith, recidivism, employment, public assistance, incarceration effects Sources: The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration - [confirmed] Mueller-Smith: Deterrence Effects Needed to Justify Incarceration Mueller-Smith's cost-benefit analysis found that substantial general deterrence effects would be necessary to justify incarceration costs—effects larger than most evidence supports. Date: 2015-01-01 Tags: deterrence, cost-benefit, incarceration costs, Mueller-Smith Sources: The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration - [confirmed] Meta-Analysis: Higher-Quality Studies Show Higher Recidivism for Incarcerated Comprehensive meta-analyses found that higher-quality comparison group studies reported higher recidivism rates for the incarcerated group relative to non-incarcerated alternatives. Two randomized designs found 5% and 9% increases in recidivism for the incarceration group. Date: 1999-01-01 Tags: meta-analysis, recidivism, incarceration effects, Gendreau, Goggin, Cullen Sources: The Effects of Prison Sentences on Recidivism - [confirmed] Liedka, Piehl, and Useem: Diminishing Marginal Returns of Incarceration Each increase in incarceration rates is associated with increasingly smaller reductions in crime rates. At high levels of incarceration, additional imprisonment produces negligible crime reduction effects and may actually increase crime. Date: 2006-01-01 Tags: diminishing returns, incarceration effectiveness, crime reduction, scale Sources: The Crime-Control Effect of Incarceration: Does Scale Matter? - [confirmed] NRC: Primary Drivers of High Incarceration The National Research Council identified truth-in-sentencing initiatives, mandatory minimum sentences, three-strikes laws, and parole abolition/restriction as primary drivers of high incarceration. Date: 2014-01-01 Tags: National Research Council, incarceration drivers, truth in sentencing, mandatory minimums, three strikes, parole abolition Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences - [confirmed] NRC: Marginal-to-Zero Impact of Incarceration on Crime The National Research Council's comprehensive review concluded that incarceration has marginal-to-zero impact on crime, diminishing returns are well-documented, and 75–100% of crime reduction since the 1990s is explained by other factors. Date: 2014-01-01 Tags: National Research Council, incarceration effectiveness, crime reduction, consensus Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences - [confirmed] Incarceration Reduces Economic Mobility The Pew Charitable Trusts documented how incarceration reduces employment opportunities, reduces earnings, limits economic mobility, increases the likelihood that children of incarcerated parents will live in poverty, and increases the likelihood those children engage in delinquent behavior—creating an intergenerational poverty trap. Date: 2010-01-01 Tags: economic mobility, poverty, intergenerational effects, children, employment, Pew Sources: Collateral Costs: Incarceration's Effect on Economic Mobility - [confirmed] Texas: Crime Fell to Lowest Level Since 1960s Following justice reinvestment reforms, Texas's crime fell to its lowest level since the 1960s. Tags: Texas, crime rate, justice reinvestment, reform success Sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports - [confirmed] 1990s Incarceration Growth Driver: Length of Time Served The Sentencing Project documented that the dominant driver of incarceration growth from the 1990s onward was length of time served, not crime rates or new admissions. Date: 2000-01-01 Tags: Sentencing Project, incarceration growth, time served, sentencing policy Sources: Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s - [confirmed] Mass Drug Incarceration Did Not Reduce Drug Availability Despite massive increases in drug-related incarceration, drugs remain easily available—neither mass arrest nor incarceration reduced drug availability. Date: 2000-01-01 Tags: drug policy, incarceration effectiveness, war on drugs, Sentencing Project Sources: Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s - [confirmed] Oregon Measure 11: Behavioral Responses to Rigid Sentencing RAND's evaluation of Oregon's Measure 11 found significant behavioral adaptations: judges and lawyers altered charging decisions and plea bargaining. Fewer people were convicted of Measure 11 offenses, more were convicted of non-Measure 11 offenses, and those convicted of Measure 11 offenses received harsher sentences. Rigid sentencing laws create sizable distortions in charging and plea bargaining without necessarily achieving their stated public safety goals. Tags: Oregon, Measure 11, mandatory minimums, plea bargaining, charging decisions, behavioral adaptation, RAND Sources: RAND Corporation Oregon Measure 11 Evaluation - [estimated] GPS: Ratio of Federal Incentive to State Obligation Georgia accepted $82M in federal incentives and took on $40–50B in subsequent costs—a ratio of roughly 1:500. The federal government effectively induced states to massively expand incarceration at state expense. Tags: Georgia, VOI/TIS, federal grants, fiscal impact, cost ratio, GPS analysis Sources: GPS analysis of Georgia state budget documents - [reported] GPS: Classification Mismatches as TIS Consequence Classification mismatches—medium-security facilities housing close-security inmates at 10x normal rates—are a downstream consequence of TIS-driven overcrowding. These facilities have significantly higher mortality rates. Tags: Georgia, classification, overcrowding, TIS, mortality, GPS investigation Sources: GPS analysis applying academic findings to Georgia corrections data - [confirmed] TIS Required Percentages Much Higher Than Pre-TIS Actual By 1998, the percentages of terms required to be served under TIS were much higher than the actual percentages served by 1993 releases—in most cases at least doubled. Date: 1998-01-01 Tags: truth in sentencing, time served, sentencing comparison Sources: Influence of Truth-in-Sentencing Reforms on Changes in States' Sentencing Practices and Prison Populations - [confirmed] 1980s Incarceration Growth Driven by Drug Offense Sanctioning In the 1980s, the primary driver of incarceration growth was increased use of incarceration as a sanction, especially for drug offenses. Tags: 1980s, incarceration growth, drug offenses, war on drugs, Sentencing Project Sources: Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s - [confirmed] Norway Invests Heavily in Rehabilitation and Reentry Norway invests heavily in rehabilitation, vocational training, and reentry support. Per-year costs are higher in Norway, but per-spell costs are lower due to shorter sentences. Date: 2020-01-01 Tags: Norway, rehabilitation, vocational training, reentry, international comparison Sources: Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment - [confirmed] Correctional Education: Even Partial Participation Reduces Recidivism Even partial participation in correctional education programs reduces recidivism compared to no participation. Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: correctional education, recidivism, RAND, partial participation Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? - [reported] RAND Education Research Influenced First Step Act RAND's correctional education research influenced the First Step Act of 2018 educational provisions. Date: 2018-01-01 Tags: RAND, First Step Act, correctional education, policy influence Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? - [confirmed] Schools of Crime vs. Minimalist Position The 'schools of crime' viewpoint holds that the barren, inhumane, psychologically destructive nature of prisonization makes offenders more likely to recidivate. The 'minimalist/interaction' position holds that effects of prison on offenders are minimal with few exceptions. Date: 1999-01-01 Tags: prisonization, schools of crime, recidivism theory, criminology Sources: The Effects of Prison Sentences on Recidivism METHODOLOGY NOTES (5) ---------------------------------------- - [confirmed] Sleeper Effect of TIS Laws Mandatory minimum, TIS, and three-strikes laws requiring decades-long sentences have an inevitable 'sleeper effect': newly admitted prisoners accumulate for years before being offset by releases. Urban Institute, Vera Institute, and RAND studies all systematically underestimate TIS effects because their study periods end between 1996 and 2002. Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: sleeper effect, truth in sentencing, mandatory minimums, three strikes, research limitations Sources: Stemming the Tide: Strategies to Reduce Growth and Cut Cost of Federal Prison System - [confirmed] OLS vs. IV Estimates Show Selection Bias in Recidivism In the Norway study, OLS analysis showed positive associations between incarceration and recidivism, while IV estimates showed negative associations. This sharp contrast suggests that high recidivism rates among ex-convicts are due to selection (who gets incarcerated), not a consequence of the prison experience itself. Date: 2020-01-01 Tags: selection bias, methodology, OLS, IV, recidivism, Norway Sources: Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment - [confirmed] Parole Bias Methodological Problem Studies measuring recidivism as return to prison may be systematically biased when comparing early vs. late releases. Early releases spend a larger fraction of the follow-up period on parole, raising the odds of reimprisonment for technical violations and increasing swiftness/certainty of return within a given follow-up period. This can make early release appear to increase crime without any real impact on crime. Date: 2017-01-01 Tags: parole bias, methodology, recidivism measurement, technical violations, Roodman Sources: The Impacts of Incarceration on Crime - [confirmed] Heterogeneity of Incarceration Effects Incarceration effects vary by prior sanctioning experience, in-prison experiences, post-release support level, age, offense type, and whether the unit of analysis is individuals, families, or neighborhoods. Younger individuals and those with longer sentences show more robust responses to educational interventions. Property crimes and violent crimes show different incapacitation effects. Tags: heterogeneity, incarceration effects, research methodology, age, offense type Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences; The Impacts of Incarceration on Crime - [confirmed] RAND Correctional Education Meta-Analysis Coverage Period RAND's correctional education meta-analysis covered programs from 1980 to 2013. Date: 2013-01-01 Tags: RAND, meta-analysis, correctional education, methodology Sources: How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here? DATA GAPS (1) ---------------------------------------- - [confirmed] TIS Study Period Limitations Most TIS evaluations cover periods ending 1996–2002, systematically missing the 'sleeper effect' of decades-long sentences accumulating in the system. The full fiscal and population impact of TIS laws could not be observed during these early evaluation windows. Tags: research gap, TIS, sleeper effect, study limitations, evaluation period Sources: The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences; The Impacts of Incarceration on Crime DATASETS (4) ---------------------------------------- # Georgia Federal VOI/TIS Grant Awards by Fiscal Year (FY 1996–2001) Annual federal VOI/TIS grant awards received by Georgia for prison bed construction and corrections capacity expansion Fiscal Year Amount ----------------------- 1996 14073653 1997 23923177 1998 16249000 1999 14073653 2000 6745553 2001 7146000 # Key Metrics Summary for GPS Reporting Summary table of key data points supporting GPS investigative reporting on truth-in-sentencing fiscal and human costs Metric Value Source ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- National increase in time served, 1990–2009 36% Pew (2012) Crime decline explained by non-incarceration factors since 1990s 75–100% Vera/Stemen (2017) Crime reduction from additional incarceration since 2000 Near zero Vera/Stemen (2017) States that reduced both incarceration AND crime, 2000–2015 19 Vera/Stemen (2017) Prison education recidivism reduction 43% RAND meta-analysis Prison education ROI $4–5 per dollar RAND meta-analysis Georgia federal TIS grants received $82.2M BJA Final Report Georgia total corrections system costs (est. 1995–2025) $40–50B GPS analysis Federal grants as % of subsequent costs 0.2–0.3% GPS analysis Estimated Georgia recidivism premium (20 years) $2.7B GPS analysis Employment reduction per year of incarceration 3.6 pp Mueller-Smith (2015) Employment drop for 1+ year incarceration (stable earners) 24+ pp Mueller-Smith (2015) National corrections spending (2000) vs. equivalent safety cost (1975) $33B vs. $7.4B Vera/Stemen (2017) Texas cost avoidance through justice reinvestment $3B+ Pew/CSG Norway avg. prison spell vs. U.S. avg. 6 months vs. 2.9 years Bhuller et al. (2020) # National Corrections Spending Over Time Growth in national corrections spending from the 1980s through 2015 Period Annual Spending (Billions) Source -------------------------------------------------------- 1980s 11000000000 Pew (2012) 2000s 50000000000 Pew (2012) 2015 87000000000 Vera/Stemen (2017) # Drug Admissions and Arrests Growth Growth in annual drug admissions to state prisons and drug arrests nationally Metric Earlier Value Earlier Year Later Value Later Year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Annual drug admissions to state prisons 19600 1984 107000 1998 Drug arrests 1010000 1991 1559100 1998 KEY ENTITIES (53) ---------------------------------------- - Anne Morrison Piehl [person]: Co-author of the 2006 study establishing diminishing marginal returns of incarceration at scale. - Bert Useem [person]: Co-author of the 2006 study establishing diminishing marginal returns of incarceration at scale. - Brennan Center for Justice [organization]: Published 'What Caused the Crime Decline?' (Roeder, Eisen, and Bowling 2015). - Bureau of Justice Assistance [organization]: Federal agency that administered the VOI/TIS grant program and published the VOI/TIS Final Report with state-by-state grant awards. (aka: BJA) - Bureau of Justice Statistics [organization]: Federal statistical agency providing expenditure data and the National Corrections Reporting Program data used in multiple studies. (aka: BJS) - Carlisle E. Moody [person]: Co-author of 1996 study on determinate sentencing and abolishing parole. - Claire Goggin [person]: Co-author of 1999 meta-analysis on the effects of prison sentences on recidivism. - David C. Macdonald [person]: Author of unpublished 2023 paper 'Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism.' - David Roodman [person]: Researcher who conducted 2017 reanalysis of Kuziemko's Georgia parole data for the Open Philanthropy Project, identifying parole bias and finding insignificant impact of length of stay on recidivism. - Don Stemen [person]: Author of the Vera Institute's landmark evidence brief 'The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer' (2017). - First Step Act of 2018 [legislation]: Federal criminal justice reform legislation that included educational provisions influenced by RAND's correctional education research. (aka: First Step Act) - Francis T. Cullen [person]: Co-author of 1999 meta-analysis on the effects of prison sentences on recidivism. - Georgia Department of Corrections [organization]: Georgia state agency responsible for adult corrections, received portion of VOI/TIS grant funds for bed construction. (aka: GDC, Department of Corrections) - Georgia Department of Juvenile Justice [organization]: Georgia state agency responsible for juvenile corrections, received portion of VOI/TIS grant funds for bed construction. (aka: DJJ) - Georgia Prisoners' Speak [organization]: Journalism organization documenting conditions in Georgia's prison system. Conducted original analysis of Georgia state budget documents and applied academic findings to Georgia corrections data. (aka: GPS) - Georgia Seven Deadly Sins Law [legislation]: Georgia law enacted in 1995 requiring life without parole for second conviction of seven serious violent felonies. (aka: Seven Deadly Sins law, Seven Deadly Sins) - Gordon B. Dahl [person]: Co-author of the Norway natural experiment study on incarceration, recidivism, and employment (Bhuller et al. 2020). - Government Accountability Office [organization]: Federal agency that published the 1998 Truth in Sentencing state grants report. (aka: GAO) - Ilyana Kuziemko [person]: Researcher who studied Georgia inmates using parole board guideline discontinuities, finding each additional month served lowers 3-year recidivism rate by 1.5% (2013). Findings later contested by Roodman. - James F. Austin [person]: Co-author of 'The Diminishing Returns of Increased Incarceration' for the JFA Institute (2004). - Jenni Gainsborough [person]: Co-author of 'Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s' for The Sentencing Project (2000). - Jesse M. Shapiro [person]: Co-author of 'Do Harsher Prison Conditions Reduce Recidivism?' in American Law and Economics Review (2007). - JFA Institute [organization]: Published 'The Diminishing Returns of Increased Incarceration: A Blueprint to Improve Public Safety and Reduce Costs' (Austin and Fabelo 2004). - Julia Bowling [person]: Co-author of 'What Caused the Crime Decline?' for the Brennan Center for Justice (2015). - Justice Reinvestment Initiative [program]: Pew-supported initiative that worked with 30+ states to implement data-driven criminal justice reform, including Texas and Louisiana. (aka: JRI) - Katrine V. Løken [person]: Co-author of the Norway natural experiment study on incarceration, recidivism, and employment (Bhuller et al. 2020). - Lauren-Brooke Eisen [person]: Co-author of 'What Caused the Crime Decline?' for the Brennan Center for Justice (2015). - Lynne M. Vieraitis [person]: Co-author of 'The Criminogenic Effects of Imprisonment' in Criminology & Public Policy (2007). - M. Keith Chen [person]: Co-author of 'Do Harsher Prison Conditions Reduce Recidivism?' in American Law and Economics Review (2007). - Magne Mogstad [person]: Co-author of the Norway natural experiment study on incarceration, recidivism, and employment (Bhuller et al. 2020). - Manudeep Bhuller [person]: Co-author of the Norway natural experiment study on incarceration, recidivism, and employment (Bhuller et al. 2020). - Marc Mauer [person]: Co-author of 'Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s' for The Sentencing Project (2000). - Michael Mueller-Smith [person]: University of Michigan researcher whose 2015 study found imprisonment generates net increases in recidivism frequency and severity, with each additional year reducing post-release employment by 3.6 percentage points. - National Corrections Reporting Program [program]: Bureau of Justice Statistics data program providing prisoner admission and release data from 35 states representing 89% of 2009 releases. Used as basis for Pew 'Time Served' analysis. (aka: NCRP) - National Research Council [organization]: Published the comprehensive consensus report 'The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences' (2014). (aka: NRC, National Academies) - Oliver Roeder [person]: Co-author of 'What Caused the Crime Decline?' for the Brennan Center for Justice (2015). - Open Philanthropy Project [organization]: Funded David Roodman's 2017 research on the impacts of incarceration on crime. - Oregon Measure 11 [legislation]: Oregon ballot measure passed in 1994 imposing mandatory minimums of 70–300 months for 16 designated crimes, later expanded to 21. RAND evaluation found it caused significant behavioral adaptations in charging and plea bargaining. (aka: Measure 11) - Paul Gendreau [person]: Co-author of 1999 meta-analysis on the effects of prison sentences on recidivism. - Pew Charitable Trusts [organization]: Research and policy organization that published 'Time Served' (2012), 'Collateral Costs' (2010), and supported the Justice Reinvestment Initiative in 30+ states. (aka: Pew) - RAND Corporation [organization]: Research organization that conducted the correctional education meta-analysis (2013) and evaluated Oregon's Measure 11. (aka: RAND) - Raymond V. Liedka [person]: Co-author of the 2006 study establishing diminishing marginal returns of incarceration at scale. - Second Chance Pell Experimental Sites Initiative [program]: Federal program launched in 2015 that restored Pell Grant eligibility for incarcerated students after a 21-year ban. Over 40,000 students participated by 2022, earning nearly 12,000 credentials. (aka: Second Chance Pell) - Steven D. Levitt [person]: Author of 'Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s' in the Journal of Economic Perspectives (2004). - The Sentencing Project [organization]: Research and advocacy organization that published 'Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s' (Gainsborough and Mauer 2000). (aka: Sentencing Project) - Thomas B. Marvell [person]: Co-author of 1996 study on determinate sentencing and abolishing parole using 1971–1993 data from 10 parole-abolition states. - Tomislav V. Kovandzic [person]: Co-author of 'The Criminogenic Effects of Imprisonment' in Criminology & Public Policy (2007). - Tony Fabelo [person]: Co-author of 'The Diminishing Returns of Increased Incarceration' for the JFA Institute (2004). - Urban Institute [organization]: Research organization that evaluated the VOI/TIS grant program (Sabol et al. 2002) and published 'Stemming the Tide' (2013) on federal prison system costs. - Vera Institute of Justice [organization]: Research and policy organization that published 'The Prison Paradox' (Stemen 2017) and other foundational research on incarceration effectiveness and costs. (aka: Vera Institute, Vera) - Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 [legislation]: Federal legislation that created the VOI/TIS Incentive Grant Program under Title II, Subtitle A. Authorized $12.5 billion for states adopting truth-in-sentencing laws. (aka: P.L. 103-322, 1994 Crime Bill) - VOI/TIS Incentive Grant Program [program]: Federal grant program created under the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 to incentivize states to adopt truth-in-sentencing laws requiring violent offenders to serve at least 85% of their sentences. Authorized $12.5 billion nationally. (aka: Violent Offender Incarceration and Truth-in-Sentencing Incentive Grant Program, VOI/TIS) - William J. Sabol [person]: Lead researcher at the Urban Institute who evaluated the VOI/TIS grant program's influence on state sentencing practices and prison populations (2002). SOURCES (21) ---------------------------------------- - Bureau of Justice Assistance VOI/TIS Final Report, Bureau of Justice Assistance [official_report, primary] - Collateral Costs: Incarceration's Effect on Economic Mobility, Pew Charitable Trusts (2010-01-01) [official_report, primary] - Determinate Sentencing and Abolishing Parole: The Long-term Impacts on Prisons and Crime, Criminology by Thomas B. Marvell, Carlisle E. Moody (1996-01-01) [academic, primary] - Diminishing Returns: Crime and Incarceration in the 1990s, The Sentencing Project by Jenni Gainsborough, Marc Mauer (2000-01-01) [official_report, primary] - GAO Truth in Sentencing State Grants Report 1998, Government Accountability Office (1998-01-01) [official_report, primary] - GPS analysis applying academic findings to Georgia corrections data, Georgia Prisoners' Speak [gps_original, secondary] - GPS analysis of Georgia state budget documents, Georgia Prisoners' Speak [gps_original, primary] - How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here?, RAND Corporation (2013-01-01) [academic, primary] - How Should Inmates Be Released from Prison? An Assessment of Parole Versus Fixed-Sentence Regimes, Quarterly Journal of Economics by Ilyana Kuziemko (2013-01-01) [academic, primary] - Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment, Journal of Political Economy by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, Magne Mogstad (2020-01-01) [academic, primary] - Influence of Truth-in-Sentencing Reforms on Changes in States' Sentencing Practices and Prison Populations, Urban Institute by William J. Sabol et al. (2002-01-01) [academic, primary] - Pew Charitable Trusts Justice Reinvestment Initiative reports, Pew Charitable Trusts [official_report, primary] - RAND Corporation Oregon Measure 11 Evaluation, RAND Corporation [academic, primary] - Stemming the Tide: Strategies to Reduce Growth and Cut Cost of Federal Prison System, Urban Institute (2013-01-01) [academic, primary] - The Crime-Control Effect of Incarceration: Does Scale Matter?, Criminology & Public Policy by Raymond V. Liedka, Anne Morrison Piehl, Bert Useem (2006-01-01) [academic, primary] - The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration, University of Michigan (Working Paper) by Michael Mueller-Smith (2015-01-01) [academic, primary] - The Effects of Prison Sentences on Recidivism, Public Works and Government Services Canada by Paul Gendreau, Claire Goggin, Francis T. Cullen (1999-01-01) [academic, primary] - The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences, The National Academies Press by National Research Council (2014-01-01) [academic, primary] - The Impacts of Incarceration on Crime, Open Philanthropy Project by David Roodman (2017-01-01) [academic, primary] - The Prison Paradox: More Incarceration Will Not Make Us Safer, Vera Institute of Justice by Don Stemen (2017-01-01) [academic, primary] URL: https://www.vera.org/publications/for-the-record-prison-paradox-incarceration-not-safer - Time Served: The High Cost, Low Return of Longer Prison Terms, Pew Charitable Trusts (2012-06-01) [official_report, primary]