Lead Poisoning From Gasoline Caused America’s Crime Wave, Not ‘Superpredators’

A comprehensive analysis of nine countries reveals that childhood lead exposure from leaded gasoline drove the violent crime surge of the 1970s-1990s, explaining 30% of the U.S. crime decline. While policymakers blamed 'moral poverty' and imprisoned millions in a catastrophic misdiagnosis, the real cause was environmental poisoning that damaged developing brains.

Key Facts

1. 8 million tons of lead were released from U.S. gasoline between 1926-1985, with atmospheric lead levels falling 98% from 1980-2014
2. 88% of U.S. children had blood lead exceeding 10 μg/dL in 1976-1980; by recent years, fewer than 3% exceed even 5 μg/dL
3. Cincinnati Lead Study found 78% of lead-exposed children were arrested as adults, accumulating average of 6 arrests per participant
4. Lead exposure explains 90% of variation in U.S. violent crime from 1964-1998 with 18-23 year lag across nine countries
5. John DiIulio's 1995 'superpredator' prediction of 30,000 new murderers by 2000 proved wrong—juvenile crime declined 82% instead

Quotables

Childhood lead exposure harmed the developing brain, especially the regions that are responsible for cognition, decision making, impulse control, socially driven behaviors, emotional regulation, and risky behaviors

The predictions were off by a factor of four. It had doubled and it was supposed to double again and instead it was halved

What’s New

• Meta-analysis adjusting for publication bias still confirms lead explains 7-28% of crime decline—larger than incarceration's 10% contribution
• Brain imaging reveals lead-exposed children show permanent gray matter loss in impulse control regions decades later

Accountability

EPA Administrator and Surgeon General permitted lead poisoning 1904-1996 despite evidence; state corrections officials imprisoned lead poisoning victims instead of addressing environmental cause

Reporting Leads

1. Contact Kim Dietrich at Cincinnati Children's Hospital for brain imaging data linking individual lead exposure to arrest records
2. Request state-level gasoline lead consumption data from EPA archives to verify crime correlation timing
3. Interview John DiIulio Jr. about his admission that superpredator predictions were 'off by a factor of four'

Related Assets

• DOJ Investigation of Georgia Prisons (2024)
• Cincinnati Lead Study Brain Imaging Results
• Rick Nevin's International Crime Analysis