The Case for Reducing Georgia’s Prison Population: What the Evidence Actually Shows

TL;DR

Georgia’s prisons are in crisis. Over 100 people were killed in Georgia prisons in 2024, up from 8 in 2018. The state spent over $600 million, but things only got worse. The evidence from other states is clear: you can safely reduce the number of people in prison without crime going up. Georgia needs to reduce its prison population by 20% — from 50,000 to 40,000 — to save lives, save money, and make prisons safer for everyone inside them.

Why This Matters

If your loved one is in a Georgia prison right now, this report is about their safety — and their future.

The federal government found that Georgia’s prisons violate the Constitution. People are dying at record rates. Guards are quitting faster than the state can hire them. The buildings are falling apart.

Georgia keeps spending more money. But it’s not working. This report shows there’s a better path. Other states have reduced their prison populations and seen crime go down, not up.

For families, this means:
– Your loved one could come home sooner — especially if they are over 55 or serving a life sentence
– Conditions inside could improve with fewer people and better guard-to-prisoner ratios
– Hundreds of millions of dollars could be redirected to real public safety programs
– The parole system — which now approves less than 5 out of every 100 lifer cases — could start working again

Key Takeaway: Georgia cannot fix its prison crisis by spending more money on a broken system. The only proven path forward is to reduce the number of people behind bars.

Spending More Has Not Worked

Georgia spent over $600 million to fix its prisons. Here’s what happened:

• Prison killings went from 8 in 2018 to over 100 in 2024 — a 1,150% increase
• Every measure of safety got worse, not better
• Guard jobs can’t be filled. 82.7% of new guards quit in their first year. Only 14.75% of people who apply get hired.

The math is simple. You can’t hire enough guards when 8 out of 10 quit right away. The only way to have enough staff is to have fewer people locked up.

Key Takeaway: Georgia poured over $600 million into its prisons, but deaths surged from 8 to over 100 and guard turnover hit 82.7% in the first year.

Other States Prove It Can Be Done Safely

This isn’t a guess. Other states have done this — and crime went down.

Across the whole country:
– The U.S. cut its prison population by 25% from 2009 to 2021 — from over 1.6 million to under 1.2 million people
– Violent crime dropped 53% from its 1991 peak
– Property crime dropped 66%

State by state:
– New York: Crime fell 58% while the number of people locked up fell 55%. The state closed 12 or more prisons and saved tens of millions.
– New Jersey: Holds 37% fewer people than in 2019 — the biggest drop of any state. Crime fell 30% during earlier cuts.
– California: After a court order, the prison population dropped 23%. Violent crime fell 21%.
– Five Southern and other states — including Mississippi — cut their prison populations by 14-25%. That’s 23,646 fewer people locked up. Crime did not go up.

These states used the same reform approach Georgia used under Governor Deal. It worked then. It can work now.

Key Takeaway: Across dozens of states, reducing prison populations by 14-55% led to stable or falling crime — not more crime.

During COVID, Fewer People Were Locked Up — and the Sky Didn’t Fall

In 2020, the pandemic forced a real-world test. Prison admissions fell 40%. The total prison population dropped 15%.

About 11,000 federal prisoners were moved to home confinement (staying at home under watch). The result? Very low rates of new crimes.

This wasn’t planned. But it proved that releasing people — even quickly — does not lead to a crime wave.

Key Takeaway: When COVID forced rapid prison releases, crime did not spike — even with 11,000 federal prisoners moved to home confinement.

Older People in Prison Are the Safest to Release — and the Most Expensive to Keep

One of the strongest facts in criminal justice is this: people age out of crime. The older someone gets, the less likely they are to break the law again.

Here are the numbers from a federal study of 25,431 people:

For all people released from prison, 43.3% are rearrested within 3 years. But for people aged 50-64, it’s only 7%. For people over 65, it’s only 4%.

Less than 2% of people 55 and older who served time for violent crimes go back to prison for new crimes.

In New York, less than 1% of parolees over 65 were convicted of a new crime within 3 years.

These are the safest people in the system. And they cost the most to keep locked up.

Key Takeaway: People over 60 have a 13.4% rearrest rate versus 67.6% for those under 21 — yet they cost up to 9 times more to imprison.

Georgia Is Spending a Fortune to Lock Up People Who Pose Little Risk

In Georgia:

• 13% of the prison population is over 55
• Over 40% of the roughly 10,000 people serving life sentences are aged 50 or older
• Medical costs for people over 65 in Georgia prisons are $8,500 per year — compared to $950 for younger people. That’s a 9 to 1 ratio.
• Nationally, it costs $60,000-$70,000 per year to lock up an older person, versus $27,000 for a younger person

The state pays $31,612 per year ($86.61 per day) to keep each person in prison.

People serving life sentences now stay locked up an average of 31 years — up from 12.5 years in the past. That shift costs $585,000 more per person.

All of this money is being spent on people who are the least likely to commit new crimes.

Key Takeaway: Georgia spends $585,000 extra per lifer due to longer sentences, while medical costs for people over 65 are 9 times higher than for younger people — for people who pose the least risk.

Georgia’s Parole System Has Collapsed

In 1993, Georgia’s parole board approved 70% of lifer cases. That meant people who served their time and showed change could come home.

Today, the approval rate is 4.5%.

In the 2024 fiscal year, the Parole Board looked at 2,046 life sentence cases. They approved only 93.

That means 1,953 people — most of them older, most of them low-risk — were denied the chance to come home. Many of them will die in prison, costing the state tens of thousands of dollars each year in medical care.

This isn’t a justice system. It’s a system that has stopped functioning.

Key Takeaway: Georgia’s parole approval rate for lifers crashed from 70% in 1993 to 4.5% today — the Board denied over 1,900 lifer cases in one year.

What Georgia Should Do: A Nine-Point Plan

GPS proposes nine steps to safely reduce Georgia’s prison population by 20% — from 50,000 to 40,000 — within 3 years:

1. Automatic parole review for people 55 and older who have served their minimum sentence, with release as the default
2. Pass SB 25 with language that makes release the starting point, not the exception
3. Create an independent watchdog for the prison system (Inspector General)
4. Stop locking people up for technical violations like missed check-ins, and cap probation lengths
5. Audit who is locked up where — the DOJ found medium-security prisons holding close-security people at 10 times the normal rate
6. Allow judges to review sentences after 15 years (second-look sentencing)
7. Expand compassionate and medical release — the Parole Board already has the power to release anyone over 62
8. Set a target: 40,000 people in prison within 3 years
9. Put the savings into real public safety — better guard pay, facility repairs, violence prevention, reentry programs, and community mental health

Over 40% of Georgia’s prisoners are serving time for non-violent offenses. These reforms would start with the people who pose the least risk.

Key Takeaway: A nine-point plan focused on elderly release, parole reform, and reclassification could safely reduce Georgia’s prison population by 10,000 people.

How Much Would This Save?

The savings are massive:

• Releasing 10,000 people at the average cost of $31,612/year = $316 million saved every year
• If releases focus on older people (who cost more): 5,000 people at $60,000-$70,000 = $300-350 million saved every year
• Watching someone in the community costs only $3,000-$5,000 per year — a tiny fraction of prison costs

That money could be used for:
– Higher pay for prison staff
– Fixing crumbling buildings
– Programs that prevent violence
– Help for people coming home from prison
– Mental health care in communities

This also improves safety inside prisons. The guard-to-prisoner ratio would go from 1 guard for every 14 people to 1 guard for every 11 people.

Key Takeaway: Reducing the prison population by 20% could save Georgia $300-350 million per year and improve guard-to-prisoner ratios.

But Won’t Crime Go Up? Answering Common Concerns

“Crime will spike.”
No. New York, New Jersey, California, Connecticut, and dozens of other states cut prison populations by 20-50%. Crime matched or beat national declines in every case.

“You can’t release violent offenders.”
People convicted of violent offenses are actually among the least likely to be rearrested, according to federal data. Age is the key factor. A 60-year-old who committed a violent crime decades ago is far safer than a 20-year-old leaving prison.

“Just hire more guards.”
With 82.7% of new guards quitting in their first year and only a 14.75% hire rate, the math makes this impossible at the current population level. The only path to safe staffing is fewer people in prison.

“Voters won’t support it.”
Governor Deal — a conservative Republican — passed major prison reforms in Georgia that were politically popular. Surveys show most crime victims prefer prevention over locking more people up.

Key Takeaway: Every common objection to reducing prison populations is contradicted by real-world evidence from states that have already done it.

The Bottom Line

Georgia has tried spending its way out of this crisis. It spent over $600 million. More people died. More guards quit. Nothing got better.

The evidence is overwhelming. Other states have safely reduced their prison populations. Crime went down. Money was saved. Lives were protected.

Georgia is locking up thousands of aging people who pose almost no risk to anyone. It’s spending $585,000 extra per lifer. It’s letting a parole system that once worked grind to a near-total halt.

The path forward is clear. Georgia must reduce its prison population. Not because it’s soft on crime — but because the evidence proves it’s the only thing that will work.

Glossary

• Decarceration: Reducing the number of people in prison through policy changes like expanded parole and sentence reviews
• Age-crime curve: The proven pattern that people commit fewer crimes as they get older
• Technical violation: Breaking a rule of probation or parole — like missing a check-in — that isn’t a new crime but can still send someone back to prison
• Justice Reinvestment: A reform approach where states use data to cut prison populations and spend the savings on programs that actually reduce crime. Georgia used this under Governor Deal.
• Presumptive parole: A system where parole is granted unless the board can show a specific reason to deny it — the opposite of how it works now
• Second-look sentencing: Letting a judge review a sentence after 15 years to see if it still makes sense
• Compassionate release: Letting someone out of prison early because they are very sick, dying, or elderly and pose no real risk
• Recidivism: The rate at which people released from prison get arrested again or go back to prison
• Brown v. Plata: A 2011 Supreme Court case that forced California to reduce its prison population because conditions were unconstitutional. Violent crime fell 21% afterward.
• Reclassification audit: A review of who is held at what security level to make sure people are in the right place. The DOJ found that Georgia has this badly wrong.

Read the Source Document

📄 Read the full GPS policy brief: The Case for Decarceration in Georgia: An Evidence Base (PDF)

Other Versions of This Analysis

We publish this analysis in versions written for different audiences:

• 📋 Legislator Brief — For lawmakers and policy staff
• 📰 Media Summary — For journalists and reporters
• 📢 Advocate Toolkit — For organizers and advocacy groups